Song for Jasmine

This is Mirihi Island, in the Maldives. It’s a small island in Ari atoll. The Maldives are a chain of coral islands in the Indian Ocean, near the southern tip of India.

I’ve been to the Maldives a few times, and I learned to dive there. Having watched Jacques Cousteau bubbling his way across the screen as a kid, I actually got to do some of it myself.

I went from beginner to PADI divemaster in one year, got myself an underwater housing for my digital camera, and went for it. You can see some of the results here, the sharks at Anga Faru in Baa Atoll, a Giant Moray with a cleaner shrimp, and a nudibranch (Tambja Olivaria).

The Maldives are well-known for many reasons. The word atoll comes from Divehi, the native language. Its use in English was popularised by none other than Charles Darwin, whose theories of reef-formation are one of the lesser-known results of his travels.

Another claim to fame for the Maldives, until recently, was that they had the longest-serving leader in Asia. Maumoon Abdul Gayoom held power for 30 years. He was succeeded recently in democratic elections by Mohamed Nasheed.

Perhaps they are most famous as a holiday destination, but they also hit the headlines as one of the many nations to fall victim of the tsunami of December 26th 2004.

A more worrying claim to fame is that they are one of the island nations that is almost certainly doomed to disappear in the coming century as a result of global warming. The sea-level in the Maldives is projected to rise 50cm or more, by the end of the 21st century. Given that the Maldives is little more than one or two metres above sea-level at best, this is already a lot. But the Maldives will run into trouble long before the sea actually covers it completely.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change discusses island nations explicitly in its fourth assessment report. It has a few predictions common to all such small island nations in the report of Working Group II (“Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability“).

Flooding, from storms, will intensify. Coastal erosion will accelerate. Coral reefs and fisheries will be affected, and fresh water will become scarce. Agriculture and infrastructure will suffer as a result. Even the tourist industry, a major part of the Maldivian economy, is expected to suffer significantly as the Maldives become less attractive to tourists. These are all predictions of which the IPCC is “highly confident”.

The Maldivian government is not ignorant of these threats, and the IPCC note that their Ministry of Home Affairs has considered ways to help them address the matter. Chapter 16 of Working Group II has a list.

• Population consolidation i.e., reduction in number of inhabited islands
• Ban on coral mining
• Protection of international airport, upgrading existing airports
• Increase elevation in the future
• Reduction of human impacts on coral reefs
• Assigning protection status for more reefs
• Coastal protection of resort islands
• Reduce dependency on diving as a primary resort focus
• Economy diversification
• Explore alternate methods of growing fruits, vegetables and other foods
• Crop production using hydroponic systems
• Protection of groundwater
• Increasing rainwater harvesting and storage capacity
• Use of solar distillation
• Management of storm water
• Allocation of groundwater recharge areas in the islands
• Human resource development
• Institutional strengthening
• Research and systematic observation
• Public awareness and education

That’s not enough for the new Maldivian President, who is under no illusions about the future of his country. He clearly realises that all the Maldivians can do where they are will only buy them a little time. So, as the BBC reported recently, he is actually planning to buy a new homeland for the Maldivian people.

The photo at the top of this article was taken 4 days after the tsunami of 2004. Mirihi escaped practically unscathed on that occasion, but its future does not look good. Within my lifetime, this island, and much of the Maldives, could well be gone.